A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
